Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 3.574770 4.297853 5.105946 6.072481 7.193385 8.448573 9.956529
2025-03-16 2.530451 3.445753 4.578307 6.068194 7.960270 10.265340 13.266150
2025-03-23 1.880999 2.854912 4.169779 6.042272 8.602012 11.935568 16.553584
2025-03-30 1.379427 2.315208 3.683227 5.774092 8.821788 13.023310 19.155062
2025-04-06 1.093137 2.007004 3.439803 5.767080 9.348239 14.523960 22.406153
2025-04-13 0.874297 1.747518 3.208969 5.718875 9.774145 15.885840 25.547238
2025-04-20 0.769984 1.655393 3.221547 6.039199 10.777776 18.166014 30.200146
2025-04-27 0.667732 1.541748 3.172776 6.240073 11.596670 20.216718 34.650071
2025-05-04 0.596562 1.471182 3.185055 6.539277 12.596658 22.619492 39.810876
2025-05-11 0.500193 1.325201 3.029134 6.508151 13.015904 24.099950 43.589821
2025-05-18 0.401654 1.149163 2.781441 6.264831 13.021607 24.874792 46.248351
2025-05-25 0.317919 0.984789 2.526064 5.964709 12.879382 25.366818 48.443388
2025-06-01 0.268952 0.896000 2.421606 5.962917 13.313853 26.930013 52.633444
2025-06-08 0.229396 0.821319 2.335618 5.987779 13.802289 28.628805 57.182681
2025-06-15 0.194059 0.747870 2.238276 5.972450 14.204964 30.195499 61.595571
2025-06-22 0.153563 0.644734 2.045672 5.710471 14.065178 30.721518 64.137821
2025-06-29 0.130551 0.590218 1.967839 5.704769 14.464514 32.307828 68.740091
2025-07-06 0.109790 0.535829 1.878812 5.657452 14.764690 33.715207 73.083900
2025-07-13 0.103073 0.531597 1.931943 5.974972 15.910908 36.894356 81.011917
2025-07-20 0.093556 0.513032 1.939168 6.174061 16.802930 39.610465 88.183043
2025-07-27 0.087371 0.506213 1.981125 6.470556 17.947476 42.918436 96.693176
2025-08-03 0.074550 0.465171 1.906614 6.439720 18.310836 44.609787 102.067058
2025-08-10 0.059784 0.407750 1.764851 6.198623 18.138048 45.143048 105.124698